AD Nogueirense vs Os Marialvas: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 24Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Santo António, Nogueira do Cravo
The Footlab AI model makes Os Marialvas the favourite at 47%, against 29% for a draw and 24% for AD Nogueirense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Os Marialvas wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 11, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AD Nogueirense vs Os Marialvas?
Os Marialvas starts as the favourite with a 136-point Elo edge (1,925 vs 1,789).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AD Nogueirense vs Os Marialvas
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AD Nogueirense
Not enough data to predict the AD Nogueirense lineup.
Os Marialvas
4-3-3- 40Y. Sonhi
- 55Paulinho
- 9A. Undonque
- 8G. Pinto
- 45G. Batalha
- 6L. Maia
- 7Gonçalo Lixa
- 10João Silva
- 3S. Fernandes
- 20A. Santos
- 32Bruno Souza
Computed on November 11, 2026 at 05:54 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 12 matches in all competitions, AD Nogueirense have 1 win, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Os Marialvas have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Mortágua(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(away) | 3-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 25, 2026 | FC Alverca II(away) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Naval 1893(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(away) | 3-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(away) | 3-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Nov 1, 2026 | UD da Serra(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Fazendense(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Chaves(away) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sertanense(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
How many goals should we expect?
AD Nogueirense score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 12; Os Marialvas score 1.5 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD Nogueirense | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2 | 6/12 | 5/12 |
| Os Marialvas | 1.5 | 0.5 | 10 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 12 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AD Nogueirense sit 9th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (8 points from 7 matches) and Os Marialvas sit 1st (16 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Os Marialvas | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 16 |
| 9 | AD Nogueirense | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 8 |
A question about AD Nogueirense vs Os Marialvas?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AD Nogueirense vs Os Marialvas?
- The Footlab AI model makes Os Marialvas the favourite at 47%, against 29% for a draw and 24% for AD Nogueirense.
- Where and when is AD Nogueirense vs Os Marialvas played?
- AD Nogueirense vs Os Marialvas is played on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Santo António, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.