Benfica Castelo Branco vs Sertanense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 24Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro, Castelo Branco
The Footlab AI model makes Benfica Castelo Branco the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Sertanense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Benfica Castelo Branco wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,718 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Benfica Castelo Branco vs Sertanense?
Benfica Castelo Branco starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (1,853 vs 1,739).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Benfica Castelo Branco vs Sertanense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Benfica Castelo Branco
4-3-3- 85N. Gaspar
- 16A. Vagarinho
- 11Sacra
- 23G. Isaias
- 6David Peres
- 21J. Cruz
- 2Pedro Vieira
- 4P. Correia
- 15F. Celestino
- 22D. Preto
- 1D. Romana
Sertanense
4-3-3- MM. Emmanuel
- DDiogo Teixeira
- DDavi Barbosa
- 5Tiago Rodrigues
- MMauro Santos
- DDavid Morais
- GGabriel Morais Piçarra
- DDaniel Xavier
- EElvis Landim
- JJoão André Farinha Tomás
- DDaniel Leitão
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 06:34 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Benfica Castelo Branco have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Sertanense have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Mortágua(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(home) | 2-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | FC Alverca II(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Fátima(away) | 1-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Naval 1893(home) | 1-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Os Marialvas(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 27, 2026 | O Elvas(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Alcains(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mortágua(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Benfica Castelo Branco wins, 4 draws, 0 Sertanense wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2025 | Benfica Castelo Branco 1-0 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Sertanense 0-0 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Mar 24, 2024 | Benfica Castelo Branco 1-1 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Dec 10, 2023 | Sertanense 1-2 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Feb 26, 2023 | Sertanense 1-1 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Nov 13, 2022 | Benfica Castelo Branco 1-1 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Benfica Castelo Branco vs Sertanense on Apr 13, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Benfica Castelo Branco score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Sertanense score 0.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica Castelo Branco | 1.3 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Sertanense | 0.7 | 1.1 | 3 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Benfica Castelo Branco sit 8th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (6 points from 4 matches) and Sertanense sit 12th (2 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
A question about Benfica Castelo Branco vs Sertanense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Benfica Castelo Branco vs Sertanense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Benfica Castelo Branco the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Sertanense.
- Where and when is Benfica Castelo Branco vs Sertanense played?
- Benfica Castelo Branco vs Sertanense is played on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.