Benfica Castelo Branco vs Sertanense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 24Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro, Castelo Branco
The Footlab model makes Benfica Castelo Branco the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Sertanense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Benfica Castelo Branco vs Sertanense?
Benfica Castelo Branco starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,820 vs 1,715).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Benfica Castelo Branco have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Sertanense have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Naval 1893(home) | 1-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(away) | 3-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Fátima(away) | 1-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Samora Correir(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Peniche(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mortágua(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Benfica Castelo Branco(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Alcains(home) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Os Marialvas(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Benfica Castelo Branco win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Sertanense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2025 | Benfica Castelo Branco 1-0 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Sertanense 0-0 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Mar 24, 2024 | Benfica Castelo Branco 1-1 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Dec 10, 2023 | Sertanense 1-2 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Feb 26, 2023 | Sertanense 1-1 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Nov 13, 2022 | Benfica Castelo Branco 1-1 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Benfica Castelo Branco vs Sertanense on Apr 13, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Benfica Castelo Branco score 1.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Sertanense score 0.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica Castelo Branco | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Sertanense | 0.8 | 1.2 | 3 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Benfica Castelo Branco sit 7th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (3 points from 2 matches) and Sertanense sit 11th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 11 | Sertanense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Benfica Castelo Branco vs Sertanense?
- The Footlab model makes Benfica Castelo Branco the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Sertanense.
- Where and when is Benfica Castelo Branco vs Sertanense played?
- Benfica Castelo Branco vs Sertanense is played on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.