Afan Lido vs Newport City: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 9Kick-off on September 25, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Princess Margaret Way, Port Talbot / Porth Talbot, Neath Port Talbot
The Footlab model makes Afan Lido the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Newport City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Afan Lido vs Newport City?
A very open match: only 61 Elo points separate Afan Lido (1,498) and Newport City (1,558).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Afan Lido have 8 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; Newport City have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(home) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 5-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(home) | 2-5 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(away) | 4-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | llanelli AFC(away) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Afan Lido win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Newport City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2026 | Afan Lido 0-1 Newport City | FAW Championship |
| Jul 25, 2025 | Newport City 1-0 Afan Lido | FAW Championship |
| Jan 17, 2025 | Newport City 5-1 Afan Lido | FAW Championship |
| Aug 9, 2024 | Afan Lido 1-1 Newport City | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Afan Lido vs Newport City on Feb 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Afan Lido score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Newport City score 1.3 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afan Lido | 1.7 | 1.7 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Newport City | 1.3 | 2.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Afan Lido sit 8th in FAW Championship (6 points from 4 matches) and Newport City sit 7th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Newport City | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Afan Lido | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Afan Lido vs Newport City?
- The Footlab model makes Afan Lido the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Newport City.
- Where and when is Afan Lido vs Newport City played?
- Afan Lido vs Newport City is played on September 25, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Princess Margaret Way, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 25, 2026Caerphilly AthleticvsPontypridd Town
- Sep 25, 2026Baglan DragonsvsCarmarthen Town
- Sep 25, 2026Aberystwyth TownvsSwansea University
- Sep 26, 2026Ynyshir AlbionsvsTrethomas Bluebirds
- Sep 26, 2026Llantwit Majorvsllanelli AFC
- Sep 26, 2026Cardiff DraconiansvsCaerau (Ely)
- Sep 26, 2026Pontardawe TownvsTreowen Stars