Caerau (Ely) vs Newport City: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 15Kick-off on November 20, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Cwrt-yr-Ala, Caerdydd
The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 63%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for Newport City. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,447 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs Newport City?
Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 146-point Elo edge (1,741 vs 1,595).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Caerau (Ely) vs Newport City
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Caerau (Ely)
Not enough data to predict the Caerau (Ely) lineup.
Newport City
Not enough data to predict the Newport City lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 04:32 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caerau (Ely) have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Newport City have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(away) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Caerau (Ely) win, 1 draw, 2 Newport City wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2026 | Newport City 1-1 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Caerau (Ely) 4-3 Newport City | FAW Championship |
| Dec 20, 2024 | Newport City 3-1 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Aug 16, 2024 | Caerau (Ely) 1-2 Newport City | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Newport City vs Caerau (Ely) on Jan 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Newport City score 1.0 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerau (Ely) | 2.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Newport City | 1.0 | 2.1 | 3 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caerau (Ely) sit 4th in FAW Championship (19 points from 10 matches) and Newport City sit 14th (8 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 19 |
| 14 | Newport City | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 8 |
A question about Caerau (Ely) vs Newport City?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caerau (Ely) vs Newport City?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 63%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for Newport City.
- Where and when is Caerau (Ely) vs Newport City played?
- Caerau (Ely) vs Newport City is played on November 20, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Cwrt-yr-Ala, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 20, 2026Pontypridd TownvsCarmarthen Town
- Nov 20, 2026Swansea UniversityvsTrethomas Bluebirds
- Nov 20, 2026Caerphilly Athleticvsllanelli AFC
- Nov 21, 2026Cardiff DraconiansvsAberystwyth Town
- Nov 21, 2026Pontardawe TownvsBaglan Dragons
- Nov 21, 2026Ynyshir AlbionsvsLlantwit Major
- Nov 21, 2026Treowen StarsvsAfan Lido