Where and when is Llantwit Major vs llanelli AFC played?

Llantwit Major vs llanelli AFC is played on September 26, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Windmill Ground, in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Llantwit Major vs llanelli AFC: prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 9Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Windmill Ground, Llantwit Major

Llantwit Major

llanelli AFC

The Footlab model makes Llantwit Major the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for llanelli AFC. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Llantwit Major vs llanelli AFC?

A very open match: only 74 Elo points separate Llantwit Major (1,483) and llanelli AFC (1,557).

Llantwit Major win42 %

Draw24 %

llanelli AFC win34 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Llantwit Major have 4 wins, 1 draws and 10 defeats; llanelli AFC have 1, 3 and 11.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Llantwit Major
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Aberystwyth Town(away)	1-5	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Baglan Dragons(home)	0-1	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Afan Lido(away)	0-5	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Swansea University(home)	0-3	FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026	Cambrian & Clydach(home)	1-3	FAW Championship

llanelli AFC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Cardiff Draconians(away)	2-4	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Swansea University(away)	0-3	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(home)	1-1	FAW Championship
Jul 31, 2026	Newport City(home)	1-4	FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026	Haverfordwest County AFC(away)	0-6	Premier League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Llantwit Major win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 llanelli AFC win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jan 17, 2025	llanelli AFC 2-0 Llantwit Major	FAW Championship
Aug 10, 2024	Llantwit Major 2-2 llanelli AFC	FAW Championship
Mar 8, 2024	llanelli AFC 2-1 Llantwit Major	FAW Championship
Oct 13, 2023	llanelli AFC 4-0 Llantwit Major	Welsh Cup
Aug 28, 2023	Llantwit Major 2-5 llanelli AFC	FAW Championship
Feb 17, 2023	llanelli AFC 1-2 Llantwit Major	FAW Championship

Last archived meeting: llanelli AFC vs Llantwit Major on Jan 17, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Llantwit Major score 1.5 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; llanelli AFC score 0.7 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Llantwit Major	1.5	2.5	1	10/15	13/15
llanelli AFC	0.7	2.7	1	8/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Llantwit Major sit 16th in FAW Championship (0 points from 4 matches) and llanelli AFC sit 15th (1 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
15	llanelli AFC	4	0	1	3	4	12	1
16	Llantwit Major	4	0	0	4	1	14	0

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Llantwit Major vs llanelli AFC?: The Footlab model makes Llantwit Major the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for llanelli AFC.
Where and when is Llantwit Major vs llanelli AFC played?: Llantwit Major vs llanelli AFC is played on September 26, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Windmill Ground, in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.