Where and when is Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau (Ely) played?

Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau (Ely) is played on September 26, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 78% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau (Ely): prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 9Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)

Cardiff Draconians

Caerau (Ely)

The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 53%, against 20% for a draw and 27% for Cardiff Draconians. The most likely score is 1-2.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau (Ely)?

Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (1,654 vs 1,547).

Cardiff Draconians win27 %

Draw20 %

Caerau (Ely) win53 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cardiff Draconians have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Caerau (Ely) have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Cardiff Draconians
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	llanelli AFC(home)	4-2	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Pontypridd Town(home)	1-4	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Caerphilly Athletic(away)	0-0	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Ynyshir Albions(away)	0-1	FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026	Afan Lido(home)	4-1	FAW Championship

Caerau (Ely)
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Swansea University(home)	1-5	FAW Championship
Aug 14, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(away)	4-2	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Ynyshir Albions(home)	1-1	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Carmarthen Town(away)	3-4	FAW Championship
Jul 25, 2026	Barnstaple Town(home)	4-4	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Cardiff Draconians win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Caerau (Ely) win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jan 2, 2026	Caerau (Ely) 2-1 Cardiff Draconians	FAW Championship
Aug 16, 2025	Cardiff Draconians 0-1 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship

Last archived meeting: Caerau (Ely) vs Cardiff Draconians on Jan 2, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Cardiff Draconians score 1.7 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 78% probability of over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Cardiff Draconians	1.7	2.0	1	10/15	11/15
Caerau (Ely)	2.1	1.5	6	8/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Cardiff Draconians sit 10th in FAW Championship (4 points from 4 matches) and Caerau (Ely) sit 11th (4 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
10	Cardiff Draconians	4	1	1	2	5	7	4
11	Caerau (Ely)	4	1	1	2	9	12	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau (Ely)?: The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 53%, against 20% for a draw and 27% for Cardiff Draconians.
Where and when is Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau (Ely) played?: Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau (Ely) is played on September 26, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 78% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.