AFC Wimbledon vs Luton: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 22Kick-off on December 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)The Cherry Red Records Stadium, London
The Footlab model makes Luton the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for AFC Wimbledon. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AFC Wimbledon vs Luton?
Luton starts as the favourite with a 216-point Elo edge (1,941 vs 1,725).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AFC Wimbledon have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Luton have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Reading(home) | 0-0 | League One |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Leyton Orient(away) | 1-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Huddersfield(away) | 0-3 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | QPR(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Notts County(home) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Reading(away) | 4-3 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gillingham(away) | 3-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Al Kholood(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 AFC Wimbledon win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Luton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon 0-3 Luton | League One |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Luton 1-0 AFC Wimbledon | League One |
| Apr 23, 2019 | Luton 2-2 AFC Wimbledon | League One |
| Oct 27, 2018 | AFC Wimbledon 0-2 Luton | League One |
| Oct 31, 2017 | AFC Wimbledon 1-2 Luton | EFL Trophy |
| Feb 13, 2016 | AFC Wimbledon 4-1 Luton | League Two |
Last archived meeting: AFC Wimbledon vs Luton on Apr 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AFC Wimbledon score 0.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Luton score 2.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon | 0.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Luton | 2.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AFC Wimbledon sit 23rd in League One (1 points from 2 matches) and Luton sit 3rd (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Luton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| 23 | AFC Wimbledon | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AFC Wimbledon vs Luton?
- The Footlab model makes Luton the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for AFC Wimbledon.
- Where and when is AFC Wimbledon vs Luton played?
- AFC Wimbledon vs Luton is played on December 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.