AFC Wimbledon vs Luton: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 22Kick-off on December 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)The Cherry Red Records Stadium, London
The Footlab AI model makes Luton the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for AFC Wimbledon. The most likely score is 1-1. If Luton wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AFC Wimbledon vs Luton?
Luton starts as the favourite with a 172-point Elo edge (1,960 vs 1,787).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AFC Wimbledon vs Luton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AFC Wimbledon
3-4-2-1- 9J. Stockley
- 3S. Seddon
- 5O. Harrison
- 8C. Maycock
- 12A. Smith
- 29A. Sasu
- 21M. Hippolyte
- 33I. Ogundere
- 17A. Yiadom
- 6R. Johnson
- 39J. Bursik
Luton
4-1-4-1- 21N. Wells
- 8L. Walsh
- 18J. Clark
- 45K. Palmer
- 10J. Donley
- 17T. Mendel-Idowu
- 2H. Odoffin
- 5M. Andersen
- 6G. Johnston
- 3K. Naismith
- 1J. Shea
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 10:01 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AFC Wimbledon have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Luton have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Plymouth(away) | 1-2 | League One |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Barnet(home) | 0-0 | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cambridge United(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 0-0 | League One |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Doncaster(home) | 1-0 | League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wycombe(away) | 4-1 | League One |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 1-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Ipswich Town U21(home) | 6-0 | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Bradford(home) | 0-1 | League One |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Stevenage(away) | 1-2 | League One |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 AFC Wimbledon win, 1 draw, 4 Luton wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon 0-3 Luton | League One |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Luton 1-0 AFC Wimbledon | League One |
| Apr 23, 2019 | Luton 2-2 AFC Wimbledon | League One |
| Oct 27, 2018 | AFC Wimbledon 0-2 Luton | League One |
| Oct 31, 2017 | AFC Wimbledon 1-2 Luton | EFL Trophy |
| Feb 13, 2016 | AFC Wimbledon 4-1 Luton | League Two |
Last archived meeting: AFC Wimbledon vs Luton on Apr 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AFC Wimbledon score 0.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Luton score 2.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon | 0.7 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Luton | 2.0 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AFC Wimbledon sit 11th in League One (12 points from 9 matches) and Luton sit 13th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 12 |
| 13 | Luton | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 11 |
A question about AFC Wimbledon vs Luton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AFC Wimbledon vs Luton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Luton the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for AFC Wimbledon.
- Where and when is AFC Wimbledon vs Luton played?
- AFC Wimbledon vs Luton is played on December 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.