Airdrie United vs Hearts U21: prediction and stats
Challenge CupGroup Stage - 6Kick-off on October 13, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Albert Bartlett Stadium, Airdrie
The Footlab model makes Airdrie United the favourite at 75%, against 14% for a draw and 10% for Hearts U21. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Airdrie United vs Hearts U21?
Airdrie United starts as the favourite with a 252-point Elo edge (1,656 vs 1,404).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Airdrie United have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Hearts U21 have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ross County(home) | 1-3 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hamilton Academical(away) | 0-4 | League One |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Dumbarton(away) | 3-1 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | East Kilbride(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cove Rangers(away) | 0-0 | League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Berwick Rangers(away) | 4-3 | Challenge Cup |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Cowdenbeath(away) | 0-3 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Albion Rovers(home) | 3-0 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Apr 3, 2026 | East Stirlingshire(away) | 2-4 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Clydebank(home) | 0-8 | Football League - Lowland League |
How many goals should we expect?
Airdrie United score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Hearts U21 score 1.1 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airdrie United | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Hearts U21 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 1 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Airdrie United vs Hearts U21?
- The Footlab model makes Airdrie United the favourite at 75%, against 14% for a draw and 10% for Hearts U21.
- Where and when is Airdrie United vs Hearts U21 played?
- Airdrie United vs Hearts U21 is played on October 13, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Albert Bartlett Stadium, in the Challenge Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 77% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 13, 2026MontrosevsDundee United II
- Oct 13, 2026CowdenbeathvsCeltic II
- Oct 13, 2026Stirling AlbionvsHibernian U21
- Oct 13, 2026Banks O' DeevsMotherwell U21
- Oct 13, 2026Annan AthleticvsAlloa Athletic
- Oct 13, 2026Berwick RangersvsQueen of the South
- Oct 13, 2026ClydevsClachnacuddin
- Oct 13, 2026Ross CountyvsForfar Athletic