Airdrie United vs St. Mirren U21: prediction and stats
Challenge CupGroup Stage - 3Kick-off on September 8, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Albert Bartlett Stadium, Airdrie
The Footlab model makes Airdrie United the favourite at 69%, against 17% for a draw and 14% for St. Mirren U21. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Airdrie United vs St. Mirren U21?
Airdrie United starts as the favourite with a 209-point Elo edge (1,656 vs 1,447).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Airdrie United have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; St. Mirren U21 have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Stirling Albion(home) | 1-3 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ross County(home) | 1-3 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hamilton Academical(away) | 0-4 | League One |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Dumbarton(away) | 3-1 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | East Kilbride(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | East Fife(away) | 5-2 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Clyde(away) | 4-1 | Challenge Cup |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Stranraer(away) | 0-2 | Challenge Cup |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Kelty Hearts(away) | 1-2 | Challenge Cup |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Hamilton Academical(away) | 1-3 | Challenge Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Airdrie United score 1.0 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; St. Mirren U21 score 1.7 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airdrie United | 1.0 | 1.9 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| St. Mirren U21 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Airdrie United vs St. Mirren U21?
- The Footlab model makes Airdrie United the favourite at 69%, against 17% for a draw and 14% for St. Mirren U21.
- Where and when is Airdrie United vs St. Mirren U21 played?
- Airdrie United vs St. Mirren U21 is played on September 8, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Albert Bartlett Stadium, in the Challenge Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.