Ross County vs Aberdeen U21: prediction and stats
Challenge CupGroup Stage - 3Kick-off on September 8, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Global Energy Stadium, Dingwall
The Footlab model makes Ross County the favourite at 81%, against 12% for a draw and 7% for Aberdeen U21. The most likely score is 3-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ross County vs Aberdeen U21?
Ross County is a heavy favourite: 1,801 Elo points against 1,403 — a 398-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ross County have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats; Aberdeen U21 have 2, 2 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Airdrie United(away) | 3-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dunfermline(away) | 2-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Elgin City(away) | 2-1 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Montrose(home) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Peterhead(away) | 1-0 | League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Forfar Athletic(away) | 3-0 | Challenge Cup |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Keith(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Turriff United(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Invergordon(away) | 9-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Fraserburgh(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Ross County score 2.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Aberdeen U21 score 1.7 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross County | 2.7 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Aberdeen U21 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ross County vs Aberdeen U21?
- The Footlab model makes Ross County the favourite at 81%, against 12% for a draw and 7% for Aberdeen U21.
- Where and when is Ross County vs Aberdeen U21 played?
- Ross County vs Aberdeen U21 is played on September 8, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Global Energy Stadium, in the Challenge Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.