Cowdenbeath vs Kilmarnock II: prediction and stats
Challenge CupGroup Stage - 3Kick-off on September 8, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Central Park, Cowdenbeath
The Footlab model makes Cowdenbeath the favourite at 49%, against 22% for a draw and 29% for Kilmarnock II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cowdenbeath vs Kilmarnock II?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Cowdenbeath (1,493) and Kilmarnock II (1,531).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cowdenbeath have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Kilmarnock II have 3, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stirling University(home) | 4-2 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Edinburgh City(away) | 1-3 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Broxburn Athletic(home) | 0-2 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Civil Service Strollers(away) | 2-3 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Tranent Juniors(away) | 0-1 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | East Kilbride(away) | 3-5 | Challenge Cup |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Annan Athletic(away) | 0-6 | Challenge Cup |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Clyde(away) | 1-2 | Challenge Cup |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Alloa Athletic(away) | 0-3 | Challenge Cup |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Stenhousemuir(away) | 0-4 | Challenge Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Cowdenbeath win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Kilmarnock II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2024 | Cowdenbeath 4-2 Kilmarnock II | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 9, 2022 | Kilmarnock II 3-0 Cowdenbeath | Challenge Cup |
Last archived meeting: Cowdenbeath vs Kilmarnock II on Jul 30, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Cowdenbeath score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Kilmarnock II score 1.7 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowdenbeath | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Kilmarnock II | 1.7 | 2.7 | 1 | 7/12 | 10/12 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cowdenbeath vs Kilmarnock II?
- The Footlab model makes Cowdenbeath the favourite at 49%, against 22% for a draw and 29% for Kilmarnock II.
- Where and when is Cowdenbeath vs Kilmarnock II played?
- Cowdenbeath vs Kilmarnock II is played on September 8, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Central Park, in the Challenge Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.