Ajax vs Utrecht: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
The Footlab model makes Ajax the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Utrecht. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ajax vs Utrecht?
Ajax starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (2,110 vs 1,995).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ajax have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; Utrecht have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Sion(away) | 4-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Heerenveen(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Shelbourne(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(away) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Shelbourne(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 3-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Groningen(away) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sevilla(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Ajax win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Utrecht win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Ajax 0-0 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
| May 10, 2026 | Ajax 1-2 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Utrecht 2-1 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Utrecht 4-0 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Dec 4, 2024 | Ajax 2-2 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Ajax 2-0 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Ajax score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Utrecht score 1.7 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 2.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Utrecht | 1.7 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ajax sit 6th in Eredivisie (4 points from 2 matches) and Utrecht sit 15th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ajax vs Utrecht?
- The Footlab model makes Ajax the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Utrecht.
- Where and when is Ajax vs Utrecht played?
- Ajax vs Utrecht is played on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Johan Cruijff Arena, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.