AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
The Footlab model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 44%, against 23% for a draw and 33% for PSV Eindhoven. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate AZ Alkmaar (2,161) and PSV Eindhoven (2,219).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AZ Alkmaar have 8 wins, 7 draws and 0 defeats; PSV Eindhoven have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(away) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Utrecht(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(home) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 4-0 | Super Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Excelsior(away) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 0-4 | Super Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 AZ Alkmaar win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 PSV Eindhoven win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven 0-4 AZ Alkmaar | Super Cup |
| Mar 7, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven 2-1 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Nov 9, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar 1-5 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Jan 11, 2025 | PSV Eindhoven 2-2 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Oct 19, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar 1-2 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Apr 6, 2024 | PSV Eindhoven 5-1 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar on Aug 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AZ Alkmaar score 2.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; PSV Eindhoven score 3.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 3.1 | 1.8 | 2 | 12/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AZ Alkmaar sit 1st in Eredivisie (9 points from 3 matches) and PSV Eindhoven sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?
- The Footlab model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 44%, against 23% for a draw and 33% for PSV Eindhoven.
- Where and when is AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven played?
- AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven is played on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at AFAS Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.