AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
The Footlab AI model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 39%, against 23% for a draw and 38% for AZ Alkmaar. The most likely score is 1-1. If PSV Eindhoven wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate AZ Alkmaar (2,123) and PSV Eindhoven (2,205).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1- 9M. Meerdink
- 6P. Koopmeiners
- 11R. Daal
- 14C. Stengs
- 8J. Clasie
- 24A. Oufkir
- 3W. Goes
- 4L. Schouten
- 22E. Dijkstra
- 5M. Chávez
- 28J. De Busser
PSV Eindhoven
4-2-3-1- 21S. Mijnans
- 20G. Til
- 24K. Sano
- 7R. van Bommel
- 5I. Perišić
- 31N. Fernandez
- 4A. Obispo
- 8S. Dest
- 17Mauro Júnior
- 2L. Geertruida
- 32M. Kovář
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 08:28 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AZ Alkmaar have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; PSV Eindhoven have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Telstar(home) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Heerenveen(away) | 3-2 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | RB Leipzig(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Heerenveen(home) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Twente(away) | 2-3 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(home) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 AZ Alkmaar win, 1 draw, 4 PSV Eindhoven wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven 0-4 AZ Alkmaar | Super Cup |
| Mar 7, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven 2-1 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Nov 9, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar 1-5 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Jan 11, 2025 | PSV Eindhoven 2-2 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Oct 19, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar 1-2 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Apr 6, 2024 | PSV Eindhoven 5-1 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar on Aug 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AZ Alkmaar score 2.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; PSV Eindhoven score 2.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 2.7 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AZ Alkmaar sit 3rd in Eredivisie (19 points from 8 matches) and PSV Eindhoven sit 2nd (19 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 19 |
A question about AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?
- The Footlab AI model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 39%, against 23% for a draw and 38% for AZ Alkmaar.
- Where and when is AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven played?
- AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven is played on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at AFAS Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.