Aksakovo vs Ustrem Donchevo: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 17Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Aksakovo stadium, Aksakovo
The Footlab model makes Aksakovo the favourite at 40%, against 22% for a draw and 38% for Ustrem Donchevo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aksakovo vs Ustrem Donchevo?
A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate Aksakovo (1,377) and Ustrem Donchevo (1,442).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aksakovo have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Ustrem Donchevo have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Septemvri Dragoevo(away) | 2-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik(away) | 0-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 24, 2026 | Fratria II(home) | 3-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Riltzi(away) | 1-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Benkovski Isperih(home) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Olympic Varna(home) | 3-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Riltzi(away) | 4-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Benkovski Isperih(home) | 3-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(away) | 0-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Svetkavitsa Targovishte(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Aksakovo win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Ustrem Donchevo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Aksakovo 2-3 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Ustrem Donchevo 5-0 Aksakovo | Third League - Northeast |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Ustrem Donchevo 3-2 Aksakovo | Third League - Northeast |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Aksakovo 3-1 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Aksakovo vs Ustrem Donchevo on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aksakovo score 1.5 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ustrem Donchevo score 1.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aksakovo | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Ustrem Donchevo | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aksakovo sit 14th in Third League - Northeast (0 points from 1 matches) and Ustrem Donchevo sit 11th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Ustrem Donchevo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 | Aksakovo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aksakovo vs Ustrem Donchevo?
- The Footlab model makes Aksakovo the favourite at 40%, against 22% for a draw and 38% for Ustrem Donchevo.
- Where and when is Aksakovo vs Ustrem Donchevo played?
- Aksakovo vs Ustrem Donchevo is played on December 5, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Aksakovo stadium, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.