Chernomorets Balchik vs Ludogorets III: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 17Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Gradski stadion, Balchik
The Footlab model makes Chernomorets Balchik the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Ludogorets III. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chernomorets Balchik vs Ludogorets III?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Chernomorets Balchik (1,772) and Ludogorets III (1,756).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chernomorets Balchik have 13 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats; Ludogorets III have 13, 0 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(away) | 0-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Aksakovo(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Botev Novi Pazar(away) | 4-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Svetkavitsa 14(home) | 2-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Septemvri Tervel(away) | 1-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cherno more II(home) | 2-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Benkovski Isperih(away) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 24, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(home) | 3-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 20, 2026 | Septemvri Tervel(away) | 1-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Svetkavitsa Targovishte(away) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Chernomorets Balchik win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Ludogorets III win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Ludogorets III 1-1 Chernomorets Balchik | Third League - Northeast |
| Sep 3, 2025 | Chernomorets Balchik 1-0 Ludogorets III | Third League - Northeast |
| May 3, 2025 | Chernomorets Balchik 1-0 Ludogorets III | Third League - Northeast |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Ludogorets III 1-1 Chernomorets Balchik | Third League - Northeast |
| May 12, 2023 | Ludogorets III 1-3 Chernomorets Balchik | Third League - Northeast |
| Nov 6, 2022 | Chernomorets Balchik 3-0 Ludogorets III | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Ludogorets III vs Chernomorets Balchik on Mar 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chernomorets Balchik score 2.9 and concede 0.3 goals per match over their last 15; Ludogorets III score 3.2 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chernomorets Balchik | 2.9 | 0.3 | 11 | 4/15 | 11/15 |
| Ludogorets III | 3.2 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chernomorets Balchik sit 10th in Third League - Northeast (1 points from 1 matches) and Ludogorets III sit 5th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ludogorets III | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Chernomorets Balchik | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chernomorets Balchik vs Ludogorets III?
- The Footlab model makes Chernomorets Balchik the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Ludogorets III.
- Where and when is Chernomorets Balchik vs Ludogorets III played?
- Chernomorets Balchik vs Ludogorets III is played on December 5, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Gradski stadion, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.