Al-Rayyan SC vs Al-Gharafa: prediction and stats
Stars LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium (Al-Sadd Stadium), ad-Dōha (Doha)
The Footlab model makes Al-Rayyan SC the favourite at 59%, against 21% for a draw and 20% for Al-Gharafa. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al-Rayyan SC vs Al-Gharafa?
Al-Rayyan SC starts as the favourite with a 135-point Elo edge (1,858 vs 1,724).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al-Rayyan SC have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Al-Gharafa have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Lusail City(home) | 1-0 | Stars League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Leganes(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Rochdale(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 1, 2026 | Al Wakrah(home) | 0-3 | Emir Cup |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Al-Arabi SC(home) | 4-0 | Stars League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Shahaniya(home) | 2-1 | Stars League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Al Riyadh(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Šamorín(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Al Sadd(home) | 4-1 | Emir Cup |
| May 5, 2026 | Al Wakrah(away) | 0-0 | Emir Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Al-Rayyan SC win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Al-Gharafa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | Al-Gharafa 3-2 Al-Rayyan SC | Stars League |
| Sep 25, 2025 | Al-Rayyan SC 2-3 Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| May 24, 2025 | Al-Rayyan SC 1-2 Al-Gharafa | Emir Cup |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Al-Rayyan SC 2-2 Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Al-Gharafa 2-1 Al-Rayyan SC | Stars League |
| May 1, 2024 | Al-Rayyan SC 2-1 Al-Gharafa | Qatar Cup |
Last archived meeting: Al-Gharafa vs Al-Rayyan SC on Feb 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Al-Rayyan SC score 2.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Al-Gharafa score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Rayyan SC | 2.1 | 1.2 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| Al-Gharafa | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al-Rayyan SC sit 4th in Stars League (3 points from 1 matches) and Al-Gharafa sit 3rd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Al-Gharafa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Al-Rayyan SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al-Rayyan SC vs Al-Gharafa?
- The Footlab model makes Al-Rayyan SC the favourite at 59%, against 21% for a draw and 20% for Al-Gharafa.
- Where and when is Al-Rayyan SC vs Al-Gharafa played?
- Al-Rayyan SC vs Al-Gharafa is played on October 16, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium (Al-Sadd Stadium), in the Stars League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.