Lusail City vs Al-Gharafa: prediction and stats
QSL CupGroup Stage - 3Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Al-Gharafa the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Lusail City. The most likely score is 1-1. If Al-Gharafa wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.0% of the 5,364 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 11, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lusail City vs Al-Gharafa?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Lusail City (1,616) and Al-Gharafa (1,664).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lusail City vs Al-Gharafa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lusail City
4-1-4-1- 19Rodrigo
- 6O. Ebrahimi
- 20Naif Al Hadhrami
- 8Khaled Mohammed
- 14K. Mansour
- 11H. Firouzi
- 66A. Nemati
- 4F. Russo
- 2A. Pilali
- 27M. Aiash
- 1A. Shakouri
Al-Gharafa
4-2-3-1- 7F. Coman
- 29F. Díaz
- 13F. Sassi
- 8Y. Brahimi
- 10I. Bennacer
- 11Amro Abdelfatah Ali Surag
- 18Ayoub Al Oui
- 23Saifeldeen Hassan Fadlalla
- 20Jang Hyun-Soo
- 6Dame Traoré
- 1Khalifa Ababacar
Computed on November 11, 2026 at 06:16 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lusail City have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Al-Gharafa have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Qatar SC(home) | 3-2 | Stars League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Al-Sailiya(away) | 2-1 | Stars League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Al-Duhail SC(away) | 1-3 | Stars League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Al Shamal(home) | 0-0 | Stars League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Al Shahaniya(away) | 0-1 | Stars League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Al-Duhail SC(home) | 1-2 | Stars League |
| Nov 2, 2026 | Al-Qadisiyah FC(home) | 0-5 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Qatar SC(home) | 2-0 | Stars League |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Al-Ahli Jeddah(away) | 1-2 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Al Ahli Doha(home) | 2-2 | Stars League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Lusail City win, 2 draws, 0 Al-Gharafa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Al-Gharafa 0-0 Lusail City | Stars League |
| Nov 28, 2025 | Al-Gharafa 1-1 Lusail City | QSL Cup |
| Sep 4, 2023 | Al-Gharafa 0-2 Lusail City | QFA Cup |
Last archived meeting: Al-Gharafa vs Lusail City on Sep 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lusail City score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Al-Gharafa score 1.3 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lusail City | 1.3 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Al-Gharafa | 1.3 | 2.0 | 3 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Lusail City vs Al-Gharafa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lusail City vs Al-Gharafa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Al-Gharafa the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Lusail City.
- Where and when is Lusail City vs Al-Gharafa played?
- Lusail City vs Al-Gharafa is played on December 26, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC), in the QSL Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.0% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.