Alcione vs Athletic Carpi: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone AGirone A - 11Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Ernesto Breda, Sesto San Giovanni
The Footlab model makes Alcione the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Athletic Carpi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alcione vs Athletic Carpi?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Alcione (1,747) and Athletic Carpi (1,740).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alcione have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; Athletic Carpi have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Renate(home) | 3-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Novara(home) | 0-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Mantova(away) | 2-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Torino(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Lumezzane(away) | 0-0 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Union Brescia(away) | 1-3 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pianese(home) | 3-2 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Mantova(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937(away) | 3-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Forli(home) | 0-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Alcione win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Athletic Carpi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2022 | Alcione 6-1 Athletic Carpi | Serie D - Girone D |
| Nov 28, 2021 | Athletic Carpi 1-0 Alcione | Serie D - Girone D |
Last archived meeting: Alcione vs Athletic Carpi on Apr 10, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Alcione score 0.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Athletic Carpi score 1.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcione | 0.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Athletic Carpi | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alcione sit 1st in Serie C - Girone A (3 points from 1 matches) and Athletic Carpi sit 15th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alcione | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Athletic Carpi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alcione vs Athletic Carpi?
- The Footlab model makes Alcione the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Athletic Carpi.
- Where and when is Alcione vs Athletic Carpi played?
- Alcione vs Athletic Carpi is played on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Ernesto Breda, in the Serie C - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.