Alcione vs Novara: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone AGirone A - 35Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Ernesto Breda, Sesto San Giovanni
The Footlab model makes Alcione the favourite at 38%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Novara. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alcione vs Novara?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Alcione (1,746) and Novara (1,757).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alcione have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; Novara have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Renate(home) | 3-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Novara(home) | 0-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Mantova(away) | 2-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Torino(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Lumezzane(away) | 0-0 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Juventus U23(away) | 0-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Alcione(away) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Virtus Entella(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sampdoria(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Ospitaletto(away) | 2-0 | Serie C - Girone A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Alcione win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Novara win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Alcione 0-1 Novara | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Novara 3-0 Alcione | Serie C - Girone A |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Alcione 0-1 Novara | Serie C - Girone A |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Novara 1-1 Alcione | Serie C - Girone A |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Alcione 2-1 Novara | Serie C - Girone A |
How many goals should we expect?
Alcione score 0.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Novara score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcione | 0.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Novara | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alcione sit 1st in Serie C - Girone A (3 points from 1 matches) and Novara sit 18th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alcione | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | Novara | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alcione vs Novara?
- The Footlab model makes Alcione the favourite at 38%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Novara.
- Where and when is Alcione vs Novara played?
- Alcione vs Novara is played on April 4, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Ernesto Breda, in the Serie C - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.