Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 6Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca, Oaxaca
The Footlab model makes Tapatío the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Alebrijes de Oaxaca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío?
Tapatío starts as the favourite with a 150-point Elo edge (1,864 vs 1,714).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alebrijes de Oaxaca have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Tapatío have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | CDS Tampico Madero(away) | 1-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Tepatitlán(home) | 1-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Tlaxcala(away) | 2-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Dorados(home) | 0-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Venados FC(away) | 0-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Correcaminos Uat(away) | 3-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Venados FC(away) | 2-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | CDS Tampico Madero(home) | 1-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo(home) | 0-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Leon(away) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Alebrijes de Oaxaca win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Tapatío win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca 4-3 Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Tapatío 0-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-3 Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Tapatío 6-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Mar 8, 2024 | Tapatío 1-2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2023 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-1 Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX |
Last archived meeting: Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío on Mar 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alebrijes de Oaxaca score 1.2 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Tapatío score 1.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 1.2 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Tapatío | 1.5 | 1.8 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alebrijes de Oaxaca sit 7th in Liga de Expansión MX (6 points from 4 matches) and Tapatío sit 11th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | Tapatío | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| 11 | Tapatío | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío?
- The Footlab model makes Tapatío the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
- Where and when is Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío played?
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío is played on August 28, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.