Dorados vs Monarcas: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 6Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Dorados, Culiacán
The Footlab model makes Monarcas the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Dorados. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dorados vs Monarcas?
Monarcas starts as the favourite with a 166-point Elo edge (1,873 vs 1,706).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dorados have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Monarcas have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Venados FC(away) | 2-4 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tlaxcala(home) | 2-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Mineros de Zacatecas(home) | 2-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca(away) | 2-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Tapatío(home) | 3-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Correcaminos Uat(home) | 1-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo(away) | 2-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cancún(home) | 4-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Piratas(away) | 0-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 26, 2026 | CA La Paz(home) | 4-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Dorados win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Monarcas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Dorados 0-1 Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Monarcas 2-1 Dorados | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Dorados 5-1 Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Monarcas 1-1 Dorados | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Mar 7, 2024 | Dorados 2-1 Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 25, 2023 | Monarcas 4-0 Dorados | Liga de Expansión MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Dorados score 1.2 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Monarcas score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorados | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Monarcas | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dorados sit 9th in Liga de Expansión MX (4 points from 2 matches) and Monarcas sit 4th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Monarcas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Monarcas | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 9 |
| 9 | Dorados | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Dorados | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dorados vs Monarcas?
- The Footlab model makes Monarcas the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Dorados.
- Where and when is Dorados vs Monarcas played?
- Dorados vs Monarcas is played on August 29, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Dorados, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.