Tlaxcala vs Venados FC: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 6Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 10:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Tlahuicole, Tlaxcala
The Footlab model makes Venados FC the favourite at 39%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for Tlaxcala. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tlaxcala vs Venados FC?
Venados FC starts as the favourite with a 151-point Elo edge (1,866 vs 1,715).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tlaxcala have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Venados FC have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tepatitlán(away) | 2-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dorados(away) | 2-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca(home) | 0-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Mineros de Zacatecas(away) | 1-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG(home) | 2-4 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Dorados(home) | 4-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mineros de Zacatecas(away) | 1-5 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tapatío(home) | 3-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo(away) | 1-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca(home) | 3-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Tlaxcala win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Venados FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Tlaxcala 2-2 Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Venados FC 5-1 Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Venados FC 2-1 Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Tlaxcala 1-1 Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Feb 22, 2024 | Tlaxcala 1-0 Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 22, 2023 | Venados FC 3-1 Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
Last archived meeting: Tlaxcala vs Venados FC on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tlaxcala score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Venados FC score 1.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tlaxcala | 1.2 | 1.6 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Venados FC | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tlaxcala sit 15th in Liga de Expansión MX (0 points from 3 matches) and Venados FC sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Venados FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Venados FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| 15 | Tlaxcala | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 16 | Tlaxcala | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tlaxcala vs Venados FC?
- The Footlab model makes Venados FC the favourite at 39%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for Tlaxcala.
- Where and when is Tlaxcala vs Venados FC played?
- Tlaxcala vs Venados FC is played on August 29, 2026 at 10:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Tlahuicole, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.