Correcaminos Uat vs Durango: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 6Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Olímpico Ing. Marte R. Gómez, Ciudad Victoria
The Footlab model makes Durango the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Correcaminos Uat. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Correcaminos Uat vs Durango?
Durango starts as the favourite with a 261-point Elo edge (2,008 vs 1,747).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Correcaminos Uat have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Durango have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Monarcas(away) | 3-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tapatío(home) | 2-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG(away) | 3-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tepatitlán(home) | 3-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Mineros de Zacatecas(away) | 3-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG(home) | 1-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cancún(away) | 0-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Piratas(home) | 0-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | CA La Paz(away) | 1-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tepatitlán(away) | 1-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Correcaminos Uat win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Durango win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2023 | Durango 1-0 Correcaminos Uat | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 13, 2022 | Correcaminos Uat 5-3 Durango | Liga de Expansión MX |
Last archived meeting: Durango vs Correcaminos Uat on Mar 29, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Correcaminos Uat score 1.9 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Durango score 1.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correcaminos Uat | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1 | 14/15 | 13/15 |
| Durango | 1.3 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Correcaminos Uat sit 1st in Liga de Expansión MX (7 points from 3 matches) and Durango sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Correcaminos Uat | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Correcaminos Uat | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 10 |
| 6 | Durango | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Durango | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Correcaminos Uat vs Durango?
- The Footlab model makes Durango the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Correcaminos Uat.
- Where and when is Correcaminos Uat vs Durango played?
- Correcaminos Uat vs Durango is played on August 29, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Olímpico Ing. Marte R. Gómez, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.