Calahorra vs Varea: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 11Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Planilla, Calahorra
The Footlab model makes Calahorra the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Varea. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Calahorra vs Varea?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Calahorra (1,855) and Varea (1,866).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Calahorra have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Varea have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Arnedo(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 17, 2026 | Arnedo(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 9, 2026 | Yagüe(away) | 4-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 3, 2026 | Comillas(home) | 6-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Vianés(away) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Oyonesa(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 17, 2026 | Oyonesa(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 10, 2026 | Oyonesa(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 3, 2026 | Pradejón(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Anguiano(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Calahorra win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Varea win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Varea 1-1 Calahorra | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Calahorra 1-1 Varea | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
How many goals should we expect?
Calahorra score 2.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Varea score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calahorra | 2.2 | 0.9 | 8 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Varea | 0.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Calahorra sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 (63 points from 34 matches) and Varea sit 2nd (73 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Varea | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 51 | 25 | 73 |
| 4 | Calahorra | 34 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 86 | 26 | 63 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Calahorra vs Varea?
- The Footlab model makes Calahorra the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Varea.
- Where and when is Calahorra vs Varea played?
- Calahorra vs Varea is played on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Planilla, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.