Alfreton Town vs Lancaster City: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 24Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The Impact Arena, Alfreton, Derbyshire
The Footlab model makes Alfreton Town the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Lancaster City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alfreton Town vs Lancaster City?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Alfreton Town (1,717) and Lancaster City (1,745).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alfreton Town have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Lancaster City have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Hyde United(home) | 4-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stockton Town(away) | 0-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Cleethorpes Town(away) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Avro(home) | 3-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Gainsborough Trinity(home) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Bury(away) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Quorn(home) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Redcar Athletic(away) | 1-3 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hyde United(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Rylands(home) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
How many goals should we expect?
Alfreton Town score 1.3 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Lancaster City score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfreton Town | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
| Lancaster City | 1.5 | 1.3 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alfreton Town sit 9th in Non League Premier - Northern (9 points from 6 matches) and Lancaster City sit 13th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Alfreton Town | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 9 |
| 13 | Lancaster City | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alfreton Town vs Lancaster City?
- The Footlab model makes Alfreton Town the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Lancaster City.
- Where and when is Alfreton Town vs Lancaster City played?
- Alfreton Town vs Lancaster City is played on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The Impact Arena, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.