Alpendorada vs Castro Daire: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 6Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Alpendorada, Alpendurada e Matos
The Footlab AI model makes Castro Daire the favourite at 46%, against 31% for a draw and 23% for Alpendorada. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,849 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alpendorada vs Castro Daire?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Alpendorada (1,869) and Castro Daire (1,800).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alpendorada vs Castro Daire
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alpendorada
4-3-3- 11Jucélio
- 45Pauleta
- 93Nilo Souza
- 47M. Borges
- 8B. Tavares
- 10Jony
- 16Simão Melhôr
- 2H. Meireles
- 3G. Zuzarte
- 23Pepe
- 99Ricardo Jorge Oliveira Morais
Castro Daire
4-3-3- MMarcel
- JJoão Rianço
- PPaulo Rodrigues
- TTiago Almeida
- FFred Lopes
- DDiogo
- FFilipe Soares
- PPica
- TTomás César
- RRui Pinto
- TTomás Correia
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 04:54 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alpendorada have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Castro Daire have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Cinfães(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Mação(home) | 3-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Machico(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Sanjoanense(away) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Salgueiros(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Portimonense(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Beira-Mar(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sousense(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ovarense(home) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Alpendorada win, 0 draws, 1 Castro Daire win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2023 | Alpendorada 1-0 Castro Daire | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Oct 23, 2022 | Castro Daire 1-0 Alpendorada | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
Last archived meeting: Alpendorada vs Castro Daire on Feb 5, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Alpendorada score 1.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Castro Daire score 1.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alpendorada | 1.4 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Castro Daire | 1.0 | 1.2 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alpendorada sit 11th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B (3 points from 4 matches) and Castro Daire sit 5th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Castro Daire | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Alpendorada | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
A question about Alpendorada vs Castro Daire?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alpendorada vs Castro Daire?
- The Footlab AI model makes Castro Daire the favourite at 46%, against 31% for a draw and 23% for Alpendorada.
- Where and when is Alpendorada vs Castro Daire played?
- Alpendorada vs Castro Daire is played on October 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Alpendorada, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.