Guarda vs Machico: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 6Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal da Guarda, Guarda
The Footlab AI model makes Guarda the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Machico. The most likely score is 1-1. If Guarda wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guarda vs Machico?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate Guarda (1,865) and Machico (1,909).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Guarda vs Machico
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Guarda
4-3-3- DDeivison
- SSérgio Assis Capitango Fernando Santos
- 22Daniel Semedo
- 83Tiago Luís
- TT. Nang
- IIsnaba Ioncana
- HHugo Alexandre Bulak Gavino
- 21Rogério Fernandes
- GG. Benjumea
- RRafael Tavares
- 99Ricardo Jorge Oliveira Morais
Machico
Not enough data to predict the Machico lineup.
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 05:40 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guarda have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Machico have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Chaves(home) | 2-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Camacha(home) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 6, 2026 | União Lamas(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Académico do Fundão(away) | 6-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Florgrade(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Alpendorada(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Salgueiros(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Camacha(home) | 2-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Beira-Mar(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Guarda win, 0 draws, 1 Machico win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2025 | Machico 1-0 Guarda | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Guarda 3-0 Machico | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
How many goals should we expect?
Guarda score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Machico score 1.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guarda | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Machico | 1.3 | 0.8 | 8 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guarda sit 13th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B (1 point from 4 matches) and Machico sit 2nd (8 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Machico | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 | Guarda | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
A question about Guarda vs Machico?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guarda vs Machico?
- The Footlab AI model makes Guarda the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Machico.
- Where and when is Guarda vs Machico played?
- Guarda vs Machico is played on October 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal da Guarda, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.