Alverca vs Benfica: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo
The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Alverca. The most likely score is 0-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,398 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alverca vs Benfica?
Benfica is a heavy favourite: 2,466 Elo points against 2,153, a 313-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alverca vs Benfica
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alverca
3-4-3- 22Figueiredo
- 10Chiquinho
- 19D. Camara
- 55Francisco Chissumba
- 6D. Gui
- 35Rayan
- 20Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
- 12I. James
- 21Sergi Gómez
- 14S. Baseya
- 31Matheus Mendes
Benfica
4-2-3-1- 14V. Pavlidis
- 27Rafa
- 25G. Prestianni
- 36João Palhinha
- 18L. Barreiro
- 21A. Schjelderup
- 44Tomás Araújo
- 26S. Dahl
- 6A. Bah
- 3A. Circati
- 24Samuel Soares
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 08:08 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alverca have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Benfica have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 4-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rio Ave(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Nacional(away) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Guimaraes(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | AC Milan(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | GIL Vicente(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Moreirense(away) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Alverca wins, 0 draws, 2 Benfica wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Benfica 2-1 Alverca | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Alverca 1-2 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Alverca score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Benfica score 3.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca | 1.3 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Benfica | 3.3 | 0.8 | 6 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alverca sit 8th in Primeira Liga (11 points from 8 matches) and Benfica sit 2nd (19 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
A question about Alverca vs Benfica?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alverca vs Benfica?
- The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Alverca.
- Where and when is Alverca vs Benfica played?
- Alverca vs Benfica is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.