Nacional vs Arouca: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira
The Footlab model makes Nacional the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Arouca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nacional vs Arouca?
A very open match: only 76 Elo points separate Nacional (1,982) and Arouca (2,059).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nacional have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Arouca have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Estoril(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Nacional win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Arouca win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Arouca 3-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Nacional 1-2 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Nacional 1-2 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Arouca 1-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| May 6, 2018 | Arouca 0-1 Nacional | Segunda Liga |
| Dec 22, 2017 | Nacional 2-2 Arouca | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Nacional score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Arouca score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Arouca | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nacional sit 8th in Primeira Liga (4 points from 3 matches) and Arouca sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Arouca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Nacional | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nacional vs Arouca?
- The Footlab model makes Nacional the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Arouca.
- Where and when is Nacional vs Arouca played?
- Nacional vs Arouca is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio da Madeira, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.