Guimaraes vs GIL Vicente: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães
The Footlab model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for GIL Vicente. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guimaraes vs GIL Vicente?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Guimaraes (2,085) and GIL Vicente (2,058).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guimaraes have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; GIL Vicente have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chaves(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rio Ave(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 0-3 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Guimaraes win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 GIL Vicente win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | GIL Vicente 0-1 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Guimaraes 0-0 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 11, 2025 | GIL Vicente 0-1 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 2, 2024 | Guimaraes 4-0 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 8, 2024 | Guimaraes 3-1 GIL Vicente | Taça de Portugal |
| Jan 28, 2024 | GIL Vicente 1-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: GIL Vicente vs Guimaraes on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Guimaraes score 1.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; GIL Vicente score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | 1.4 | 1.2 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| GIL Vicente | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guimaraes sit 9th in Primeira Liga (3 points from 3 matches) and GIL Vicente sit 5th (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | GIL Vicente | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Guimaraes | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guimaraes vs GIL Vicente?
- The Footlab model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for GIL Vicente.
- Where and when is Guimaraes vs GIL Vicente played?
- Guimaraes vs GIL Vicente is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.