Casa Pia vs Alverca: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 28Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Nacional, Jamor, Oeiras
The Footlab model makes Alverca the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Casa Pia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Casa Pia vs Alverca?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Casa Pia (1,954) and Alverca (2,024).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Casa Pia have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Alverca have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-7 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leixoes(away) | 2-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sporting CP B(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Mafra(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Casa Pia win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Alverca win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Alverca 3-1 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Casa Pia 0-2 Alverca | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Alverca 2-3 Casa Pia | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Casa Pia score 0.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Alverca score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Alverca | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Casa Pia sit 18th in Primeira Liga (0 points from 3 matches) and Alverca sit 17th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Alverca | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Casa Pia vs Alverca?
- The Footlab model makes Alverca the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Casa Pia.
- Where and when is Casa Pia vs Alverca played?
- Casa Pia vs Alverca is played on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Nacional, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.