Sporting CP vs Casa Pia: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio José Alvalade, Lisboa
The Footlab AI model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 76%, against 16% for a draw and 8% for Casa Pia. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,491 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sporting CP vs Casa Pia?
Sporting CP is a heavy favourite: 2,442 Elo points against 1,977, a 465-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sporting CP vs Casa Pia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sporting CP
4-3-3- 10Geny Catamo
- 19N. Irankunda
- 97L. Suárez
- 5Sergi Altimira
- 77I. Doumbia
- 4S. Andersen
- 25Gonçalo Inácio
- 22Iván Fresneda
- 20M. Araújo
- 72Eduardo Quaresma
- 1Rui Silva
Casa Pia
4-2-3-1- 9Henrique Araújo
- 80L. Ofori
- 16Silvi
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
- 11M. El Boukammiri
- 77B. Pauwels
- 18Geraldes
- 43David Sousa
- 75Pedro Rosas
- 3Kaly
- 95Ivan Mandić
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 09:53 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sporting CP have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat; Casa Pia have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Lens(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 1-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Sporting CP wins, 0 draws, 0 Casa Pia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | Sporting CP 3-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2025 | Casa Pia 0-2 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Casa Pia 1-3 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Sporting CP 2-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 29, 2024 | Sporting CP 8-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 18, 2023 | Casa Pia 1-2 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Sporting CP vs Casa Pia on Jan 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sporting CP score 2.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Casa Pia score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | 2.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Casa Pia | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sporting CP sit 3rd in Primeira Liga (18 points from 8 matches) and Casa Pia sit 17th (4 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | 18 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 4 |
A question about Sporting CP vs Casa Pia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sporting CP vs Casa Pia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 76%, against 16% for a draw and 8% for Casa Pia.
- Where and when is Sporting CP vs Casa Pia played?
- Sporting CP vs Casa Pia is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio José Alvalade, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.