Sporting CP vs Casa Pia: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio José Alvalade, Lisboa
The Footlab model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 77%, against 16% for a draw and 8% for Casa Pia. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sporting CP vs Casa Pia?
Sporting CP is a heavy favourite: 2,393 Elo points against 1,954 — a 440-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sporting CP have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Casa Pia have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Guimaraes(home) | 3-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-7 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leixoes(away) | 2-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Sporting CP win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Casa Pia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | Sporting CP 3-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2025 | Casa Pia 0-2 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Casa Pia 1-3 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Sporting CP 2-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 29, 2024 | Sporting CP 8-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 18, 2023 | Casa Pia 1-2 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Sporting CP vs Casa Pia on Jan 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sporting CP score 2.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Casa Pia score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | 2.8 | 1.1 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Casa Pia | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sporting CP sit 2nd in Primeira Liga (7 points from 3 matches) and Casa Pia sit 18th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sporting CP vs Casa Pia?
- The Footlab model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 77%, against 16% for a draw and 8% for Casa Pia.
- Where and when is Sporting CP vs Casa Pia played?
- Sporting CP vs Casa Pia is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio José Alvalade, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.