Benfica vs Estrela: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 28Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa
The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 79%, against 14% for a draw and 7% for Estrela. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,398 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Benfica vs Estrela?
Benfica is a heavy favourite: 2,466 Elo points against 2,051, a 415-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Benfica vs Estrela
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Benfica
4-2-3-1- 14V. Pavlidis
- 27Rafa
- 25G. Prestianni
- 36João Palhinha
- 18L. Barreiro
- 21A. Schjelderup
- 44Tomás Araújo
- 26S. Dahl
- 6A. Bah
- 3A. Circati
- 24Samuel Soares
Estrela
4-2-3-1- 37L. Antonetti
- 10I. Stoica
- 99A. Marcus
- 14L. Zvonarek
- 39Eddy Doue
- 78Santiago Serra
- 55Rafa Soares
- 5S. Leković
- 21M. Scholze
- 4Bernardo Schappo
- 24Léo Linck
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 12:04 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Benfica have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat; Estrela have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Guimaraes(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | AC Milan(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | GIL Vicente(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Moreirense(away) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Benfica wins, 0 draws, 0 Estrela wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Benfica 4-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Estrela 0-1 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Estrela 2-3 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Benfica 7-0 Estrela | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Benfica 1-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 29, 2024 | Estrela 1-4 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Benfica score 3.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Estrela score 1.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 3.3 | 0.8 | 6 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Estrela | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Benfica sit 2nd in Primeira Liga (19 points from 8 matches) and Estrela sit 10th (10 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 19 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 10 |
A question about Benfica vs Estrela?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Benfica vs Estrela?
- The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 79%, against 14% for a draw and 7% for Estrela.
- Where and when is Benfica vs Estrela played?
- Benfica vs Estrela is played on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.