Alverca vs Rio Ave: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo
The Footlab model makes Alverca the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Rio Ave. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alverca vs Rio Ave?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Alverca (2,025) and Rio Ave (1,978).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alverca have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Rio Ave have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sporting CP B(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Mafra(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Estoril(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tondela(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Al-Ahli Jeddah(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Portimonense(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Alverca win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Rio Ave win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Rio Ave 1-2 Alverca | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Alverca 1-1 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Alverca 2-2 Rio Ave | Taça de Portugal |
| Nov 24, 2019 | Rio Ave 1-0 Alverca | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
Alverca score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Rio Ave score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Rio Ave | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alverca sit 14th in Primeira Liga (1 points from 2 matches) and Rio Ave sit 17th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alverca vs Rio Ave?
- The Footlab model makes Alverca the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Rio Ave.
- Where and when is Alverca vs Rio Ave played?
- Alverca vs Rio Ave is played on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.