FC Porto vs Benfica: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Do Dragão, Porto
The Footlab model makes Benfica the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for FC Porto. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Porto vs Benfica?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate FC Porto (2,351) and Benfica (2,357).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Porto have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Benfica have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 1-0 | Super Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Aarhus(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Casa Pia(away) | 7-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 6-1 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FC Porto win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Benfica win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Benfica 2-2 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 14, 2026 | FC Porto 1-0 Benfica | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 5, 2025 | FC Porto 0-0 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 6, 2025 | FC Porto 1-4 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Benfica 4-1 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 3, 2024 | FC Porto 5-0 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
FC Porto score 1.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Benfica score 3.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 1.5 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Benfica | 3.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Porto sit 2nd in Primeira Liga (6 points from 2 matches) and Benfica sit 4th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Benfica | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Porto vs Benfica?
- The Footlab model makes Benfica the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for FC Porto.
- Where and when is FC Porto vs Benfica played?
- FC Porto vs Benfica is played on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Do Dragão, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.