Guimaraes vs Moreirense: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães
The Footlab model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Moreirense. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Guimaraes (2,079) and Moreirense (2,003).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guimaraes have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Moreirense have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chaves(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Al-Ahli Jeddah(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Guimaraes win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Moreirense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2026 | Guimaraes 1-0 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Moreirense 2-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Moreirense 2-2 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Guimaraes 1-0 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Guimaraes 1-0 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 5, 2023 | Moreirense 1-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Guimaraes vs Moreirense on Jan 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Guimaraes score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Moreirense score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Moreirense | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guimaraes sit 16th in Primeira Liga (0 points from 2 matches) and Moreirense sit 15th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| 16 | Guimaraes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
- The Footlab model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Moreirense.
- Where and when is Guimaraes vs Moreirense played?
- Guimaraes vs Moreirense is played on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.