Sporting CP vs Arouca: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio José Alvalade, Lisboa
The Footlab model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 75%, against 17% for a draw and 8% for Arouca. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sporting CP vs Arouca?
Sporting CP is a heavy favourite: 2,389 Elo points against 2,061 — a 328-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sporting CP have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Arouca have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Guimaraes(home) | 3-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 7-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Sporting CP win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Arouca win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Arouca 1-2 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Sporting CP 6-0 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Sporting CP 2-2 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2024 | Arouca 0-3 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 10, 2024 | Arouca 0-3 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Sporting CP 2-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Arouca vs Sporting CP on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sporting CP score 2.6 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Arouca score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | 2.6 | 1.0 | 5 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Arouca | 1.5 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sporting CP sit 7th in Primeira Liga (4 points from 2 matches) and Arouca sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arouca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sporting CP vs Arouca?
- The Footlab model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 75%, against 17% for a draw and 8% for Arouca.
- Where and when is Sporting CP vs Arouca played?
- Sporting CP vs Arouca is played on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio José Alvalade, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.