Estoril vs Casa Pia: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril
The Footlab model makes Estoril the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Casa Pia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estoril vs Casa Pia?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Estoril (2,003) and Casa Pia (1,952).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estoril have 1 wins, 6 draws and 8 defeats; Casa Pia have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nacional(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-7 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leixoes(away) | 2-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Estoril win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Casa Pia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Estoril 0-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Casa Pia 2-2 Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 29, 2025 | Casa Pia 1-3 Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Estoril 0-2 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 8, 2024 | Casa Pia 0-0 Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 10, 2023 | Estoril 4-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Estoril score 0.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Casa Pia score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril | 0.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| Casa Pia | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estoril sit 13th in Primeira Liga (1 points from 2 matches) and Casa Pia sit 18th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Estoril | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estoril vs Casa Pia?
- The Footlab model makes Estoril the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Casa Pia.
- Where and when is Estoril vs Casa Pia played?
- Estoril vs Casa Pia is played on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.