Ancona vs Foligno Calcio: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio del Conero, Ancona
The Footlab model makes Ancona the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Foligno Calcio. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ancona vs Foligno Calcio?
Ancona starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (1,799 vs 1,668).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ancona have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Foligno Calcio have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Notaresco(home) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 3, 2026 | Notaresco(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | L'Aquila(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Sammaurese(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Fossombrone(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Cannara(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Seravezza(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 19, 2026 | San Donato Tavarnelle(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Prato(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
How many goals should we expect?
Ancona score 1.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Foligno Calcio score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ancona | 1.3 | 1.0 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Foligno Calcio | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ancona | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 59 | 22 | 76 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ancona vs Foligno Calcio?
- The Footlab model makes Ancona the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Foligno Calcio.
- Where and when is Ancona vs Foligno Calcio played?
- Ancona vs Foligno Calcio is played on December 20, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio del Conero, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 20, 2026TeramovsRecanatese
- Dec 20, 2026Sporting TrestinavsL'Aquila
- Dec 20, 2026Termoli CalciovsNotaresco
- Dec 20, 2026Vigor SenigalliavsAngelana
- Dec 20, 2026Atletico AscolivsMontecchio Gallo
- Dec 20, 2026FossombronevsMaceratese
- Dec 20, 2026Lanciano FCvsReal Giulianova
- Dec 20, 2026SantegidiesevsPietralunga