Fossombrone vs Maceratese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Fossombrone, Fossombrone
The Footlab AI model makes Maceratese the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Fossombrone. The most likely score is 1-1. If Maceratese wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fossombrone vs Maceratese?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Fossombrone (1,612) and Maceratese (1,579).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fossombrone vs Maceratese
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fossombrone
Not enough data to predict the Fossombrone lineup.
Maceratese
4-3-3- 9Matteo Colombi
- 16Federico Palmieri
- 15D. Allegretti
- 8Alberto Quadri
- 7L. De Grazia
- 10Gianluca Turchetta
- 14Christian Ventola
- 5D. Marchetti
- 6Filippo Gattari
- 4A. Bondioli
- 22F. Forte
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 10:25 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fossombrone have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Maceratese have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Termoli Calcio(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Ancona(away) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Vigor Senigallia(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lanciano FC(home) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Foligno Calcio(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Recanatese(away) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Santegidiese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Pietralunga(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Ancona(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Fossombrone win, 1 draw, 0 Maceratese wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Fossombrone 0-0 Maceratese | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Maceratese 1-2 Fossombrone | Serie D - Girone F |
Last archived meeting: Fossombrone vs Maceratese on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fossombrone score 0.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Maceratese score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fossombrone | 0.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Maceratese | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fossombrone sit 10th in Serie D - Girone F (10 points from 7 matches) and Maceratese sit 14th (7 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Fossombrone | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
| 14 | Maceratese | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 7 |
A question about Fossombrone vs Maceratese?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fossombrone vs Maceratese?
- The Footlab AI model makes Maceratese the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Fossombrone.
- Where and when is Fossombrone vs Maceratese played?
- Fossombrone vs Maceratese is played on December 20, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Fossombrone, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 20, 2026AnconavsFoligno Calcio
- Dec 20, 2026TeramovsRecanatese
- Dec 20, 2026Sporting TrestinavsL'Aquila
- Dec 20, 2026Termoli CalciovsNotaresco
- Dec 20, 2026Vigor SenigalliavsAngelana
- Dec 20, 2026Atletico AscolivsMontecchio Gallo
- Dec 20, 2026Lanciano FCvsReal Giulianova
- Dec 20, 2026SantegidiesevsPietralunga