Where and when is Arandina vs Almazán played?

Arandina vs Almazán is played on September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Montecillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Arandina vs Almazán: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 - 2Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Montecillo, Aranda de Duero

Arandina

Almazán

The Footlab model makes Almazán the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Arandina. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Arandina vs Almazán?

A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Arandina (1,713) and Almazán (1,761).

Arandina win35 %

Draw27 %

Almazán win38 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arandina have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Almazán have 7, 3 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Arandina
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Becerril Campos(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 2, 2026	Mirandés II(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 26, 2026	Bembibre(home)	3-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 18, 2026	UD Santa Marta(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 11, 2026	La Virgen del Camino(home)	3-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Almazán
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	UD Santa Marta(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 1, 2026	La Virgen del Camino(away)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 26, 2026	Atlético Mansillés(home)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 23, 2026	Atlético Mansillés(away)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 19, 2026	Atlético Tordesillas(away)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Arandina win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Almazán win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jan 25, 2026	Almazán 1-3 Arandina	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Sep 13, 2025	Arandina 1-1 Almazán	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Feb 16, 2025	Almazán 0-0 Arandina	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Oct 6, 2024	Arandina 2-2 Almazán	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Feb 5, 2023	Almazán 1-1 Arandina	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Oct 2, 2022	Arandina 2-1 Almazán	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Last archived meeting: Almazán vs Arandina on Jan 25, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Arandina score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Almazán score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Arandina	1.3	1.5	2	9/15	7/15
Almazán	1.7	0.9	4	7/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Arandina sit 12th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 (37 points from 34 matches) and Almazán sit 7th (48 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
7	Almazán	34	12	12	10	49	38	48
12	Arandina	34	9	10	15	32	46	37

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Arandina vs Almazán?: The Footlab model makes Almazán the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Arandina.
Where and when is Arandina vs Almazán played?: Arandina vs Almazán is played on September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Montecillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.