Araz vs Qabala: prediction and stats
Premyer LiqaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)İbrahimxəlil Axundlu adına Naxçıvan şəhər stadionu, Nakchivan
The Footlab AI model makes Araz the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Qabala. The most likely score is 1-1. If Araz wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,466 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Araz vs Qabala?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Araz (1,713) and Qabala (1,679).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Araz vs Qabala
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Araz
4-3-3- 9A. Salyanskiy
- 23A. Fernandez
- 19S. Abdallah
- 6Patrick Andrade
- 11M. Mara
- 2A. Rzayev
- 5L. Dumančić
- 27B. Letić
- 17I. Paro
- 12Bruno
- 99T. Əhmədli
Qabala
4-3-3- 80M. Ubochioma
- 9K. Rossi
- 24I. Akinade
- 10Shahin Shahniyarov
- 27E. Ahmadov
- 4E. Camalov
- 16I. Amoah
- 5N. Monzango
- 12K. Mabea
- 3Edson
- 1S. Ağayev
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 08:06 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Araz have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Qabala have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Kapaz(home) | 0-2 | Premyer Liqa |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Şamaxı FK(away) | 1-2 | Premyer Liqa |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Turan(home) | 2-2 | Premyer Liqa |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Qarabag(away) | 2-3 | Premyer Liqa |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sabah FA(home) | 0-1 | Premyer Liqa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sumqayıt(away) | 1-4 | Premyer Liqa |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Neftchi Baku(home) | 0-3 | Premyer Liqa |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Kapaz(away) | 0-1 | Premyer Liqa |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Imisli FK(home) | 2-1 | Premyer Liqa |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Şamaxı FK(home) | 0-0 | Premyer Liqa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Araz win, 2 draws, 3 Qabala wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Qabala 1-1 Araz | Premyer Liqa |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Qabala 2-1 Araz | Premyer Liqa |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Araz 2-1 Qabala | Premyer Liqa |
| May 19, 2024 | Qabala 2-0 Araz | Premyer Liqa |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Araz 1-1 Qabala | Premyer Liqa |
| Feb 9, 2024 | Qabala 2-0 Araz | Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Araz score 1.0 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Qabala score 0.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Araz | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Qabala | 0.8 | 1.2 | 2 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Araz sit 12th in Premyer Liqa (2 points from 7 matches) and Qabala sit 9th (4 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Qabala | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 4 |
| 12 | Araz | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 2 |
A question about Araz vs Qabala?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Araz vs Qabala?
- The Footlab AI model makes Araz the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Qabala.
- Where and when is Araz vs Qabala played?
- Araz vs Qabala is played on October 23, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at İbrahimxəlil Axundlu adına Naxçıvan şəhər stadionu, in the Premyer Liqa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.