Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Arena Arda, Kardzhali
The Footlab model makes Arda Kardzhali the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Botev Plovdiv. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate Arda Kardzhali (1,859) and Botev Plovdiv (1,801).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arda Kardzhali have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Botev Plovdiv have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(home) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(away) | 2-0 | First League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Spartak Varna(home) | 3-2 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(away) | 2-3 | First League |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(home) | 1-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Arda Kardzhali win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Botev Plovdiv win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv 2-1 Arda Kardzhali | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 12, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv 1-2 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali 0-2 Botev Plovdiv | First League |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Arda Kardzhali 0-0 Botev Plovdiv | First League |
| Aug 4, 2025 | Botev Plovdiv 0-5 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Botev Plovdiv 1-1 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
Last archived meeting: Botev Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali on Jun 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arda Kardzhali score 1.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Botev Plovdiv score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Botev Plovdiv | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arda Kardzhali sit 5th in First League (10 points from 5 matches) and Botev Plovdiv sit 6th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv?
- The Footlab model makes Arda Kardzhali the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Botev Plovdiv.
- Where and when is Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv played?
- Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Arda, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.