Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Lokomotiv, Sofia
The Footlab model makes Ludogorets the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Lokomotiv Sofia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets?
Ludogorets starts as the favourite with a 266-point Elo edge (1,987 vs 1,721).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lokomotiv Sofia have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Ludogorets have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(away) | 1-3 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | CSKA 1948(home) | 1-3 | First League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Levski Sofia(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(away) | 3-2 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Hapoel Tel Aviv(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Lokomotiv Sofia win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Ludogorets win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia 1-3 Ludogorets | First League |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Ludogorets 0-0 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Lokomotiv Sofia 1-2 Ludogorets | First League |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Ludogorets 2-0 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Ludogorets 6-0 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Lokomotiv Sofia 1-3 Ludogorets | First League |
Last archived meeting: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lokomotiv Sofia score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Ludogorets score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Ludogorets | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lokomotiv Sofia sit 13th in First League (2 points from 5 matches) and Ludogorets sit 1st (16 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 16 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets?
- The Footlab model makes Ludogorets the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Lokomotiv Sofia.
- Where and when is Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets played?
- Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Lokomotiv, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.