Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Spartak, Varna
The Footlab model makes Arda Kardzhali the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Spartak Varna. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?
Arda Kardzhali starts as the favourite with a 145-point Elo edge (1,859 vs 1,714).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spartak Varna have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Arda Kardzhali have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-6 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(home) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(away) | 2-0 | First League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(away) | 1-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Spartak Varna win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Arda Kardzhali win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali 1-0 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Spartak Varna 3-0 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
| Feb 7, 2025 | Arda Kardzhali 2-2 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Aug 16, 2024 | Spartak Varna 1-0 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
| Mar 6, 2023 | Arda Kardzhali 2-0 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Aug 20, 2022 | Spartak Varna 1-3 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
Last archived meeting: Arda Kardzhali vs Spartak Varna on Feb 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Spartak Varna score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Arda Kardzhali score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Varna | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Arda Kardzhali | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Spartak Varna sit 7th in First League (7 points from 6 matches) and Arda Kardzhali sit 5th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?
- The Footlab model makes Arda Kardzhali the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Spartak Varna.
- Where and when is Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali played?
- Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali is played on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Spartak, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.