Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Spartak, Varna
The Footlab AI model makes Arda Kardzhali the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Spartak Varna. The most likely score is 1-1. If Arda Kardzhali wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?
Arda Kardzhali starts as the favourite with a 127-point Elo edge (1,804 vs 1,677).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Spartak Varna
4-2-3-1- 11Boubacar Hanne
- 17T. Marinov
- 19S. Major
- 82Tomás Silva
- 6José Ricardo Gomes Sousa
- 7Buá
- 2B. Ivanov
- 45J. Tshitoku
- 76David Valverde
- 44A. Granchov
- 23P. Iliev
Arda Kardzhali
4-1-4-1- 99B. Karagaren
- 80L. Kotev
- 8D. Yankov
- 39A. Vutov
- 4David Akintola Idowu
- 26B. Akandzha
- 21V. Velev
- 6V. Popov
- 24M. Paskalev
- 5V. Lyubenov
- 1A. Gospodinov
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 02:33 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spartak Varna have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Arda Kardzhali have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Ludogorets(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-6 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(away) | 1-4 | First League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(home) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 2-0 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Spartak Varna wins, 1 draw, 3 Arda Kardzhali wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali 1-0 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Spartak Varna 3-0 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
| Feb 7, 2025 | Arda Kardzhali 2-2 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Aug 16, 2024 | Spartak Varna 1-0 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
| Mar 6, 2023 | Arda Kardzhali 2-0 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Aug 20, 2022 | Spartak Varna 1-3 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
Last archived meeting: Arda Kardzhali vs Spartak Varna on Feb 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Spartak Varna score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Arda Kardzhali score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Varna | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Arda Kardzhali | 1.2 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Spartak Varna sit 8th in First League (10 points from 10 matches) and Arda Kardzhali sit 5th (17 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 17 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 10 |
A question about Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arda Kardzhali the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Spartak Varna.
- Where and when is Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali played?
- Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali is played on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Spartak, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.