Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Spartak, Varna
The Footlab model makes CSKA Sofia the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Spartak Varna. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia?
CSKA Sofia starts as the favourite with a 236-point Elo edge (1,951 vs 1,714).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spartak Varna have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; CSKA Sofia have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-6 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | OFI(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 5-0 | First League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv(away) | 3-0 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Spartak Varna win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 CSKA Sofia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | Spartak Varna 0-4 CSKA Sofia | First League |
| Jul 26, 2025 | CSKA Sofia 1-1 Spartak Varna | First League |
| May 13, 2025 | CSKA Sofia 5-0 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Spartak Varna 0-1 CSKA Sofia | First League |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Spartak Varna 2-3 CSKA Sofia | Cup |
| Dec 3, 2024 | CSKA Sofia 3-1 Spartak Varna | First League |
Last archived meeting: Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia on Nov 29, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Spartak Varna score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; CSKA Sofia score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Varna | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| CSKA Sofia | 1.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Spartak Varna sit 7th in First League (7 points from 6 matches) and CSKA Sofia sit 3rd (13 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CSKA Sofia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia?
- The Footlab model makes CSKA Sofia the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Spartak Varna.
- Where and when is Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia played?
- Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Spartak, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.