Arenal vs Mercadal: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Group 11 - 20Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Son Verí, S'Arenal de Llucmajor
The Footlab AI model makes Mercadal the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Arenal. The most likely score is 1-1. If Mercadal wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,495 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arenal vs Mercadal?
Mercadal starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,733 vs 1,624).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arenal vs Mercadal
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arenal
4-3-3- DDavid García Movilla
- CChino
- TToni Arrom
- JJuan José
- MMarc Bonet
- JJuan Carlos Gómez Sintes
- DDavid GarcÃa
- DDani Amengual
- SSantiago Soler Quert
- JJuanca
- LLluc Ramis
Mercadal
Not enough data to predict the Mercadal lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 09:24 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arenal have 1 win, 3 draws and 11 defeats; Mercadal have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | PE Sant Jordi(home) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Llosetense(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Porreres(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Mercadal(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Alcúdia(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Alcúdia(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Constància(home) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Santanyí(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arenal(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Inter Ibiza(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Arenal win, 1 draw, 1 Mercadal win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Mercadal 1-2 Arenal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Arenal 1-1 Mercadal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Mercadal 2-0 Arenal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
How many goals should we expect?
Arenal score 0.8 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Mercadal score 0.9 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arenal | 0.8 | 2.3 | 1 | 8/15 | 13/15 |
| Mercadal | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arenal sit 16th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 (3 points from 6 matches) and Mercadal sit 13th (5 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Mercadal | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
| 16 | Arenal | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 3 |
A question about Arenal vs Mercadal?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arenal vs Mercadal?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mercadal the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Arenal.
- Where and when is Arenal vs Mercadal played?
- Arenal vs Mercadal is played on January 31, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Son Verí, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 11.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.