Arenas Armilla vs Almería II: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 30Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Municipal, Armilla
The Footlab model makes Arenas Armilla the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Almería II. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arenas Armilla vs Almería II?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Arenas Armilla (1,787) and Almería II (1,755).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arenas Armilla have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Almería II have 1, 5 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(away) | 2-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Motril(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 31, 2026 | Motril(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 24, 2026 | Torre del Mar(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Águilas(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Deportiva Minera(home) | 3-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Yeclano(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Estepona(home) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Lorca Deportiva(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Arenas Armilla win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Almería II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2024 | Arenas Armilla 1-3 Almería II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Almería II 2-0 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Feb 11, 2023 | Arenas Armilla 1-0 Almería II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 16, 2022 | Almería II 4-0 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Arenas Armilla vs Almería II on Mar 10, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Arenas Armilla score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Almería II score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arenas Armilla | 1.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Almería II | 0.9 | 1.7 | 0 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Arenas Armilla | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 29 | 54 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arenas Armilla vs Almería II?
- The Footlab model makes Arenas Armilla the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Almería II.
- Where and when is Arenas Armilla vs Almería II played?
- Arenas Armilla vs Almería II is played on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.