Marbelli vs Churriana Vega: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 · Matchday 30Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal, San Pedro de Alcántara
The Footlab AI model makes Marbelli the favourite at 45%, against 32% for a draw and 23% for Churriana Vega. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 6,436 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marbelli vs Churriana Vega?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Marbelli (1,841) and Churriana Vega (1,839).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Marbelli vs Churriana Vega
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Marbelli
Not enough data to predict the Marbelli lineup.
Churriana Vega
Not enough data to predict the Churriana Vega lineup.
Computed on November 15, 2026 at 11:12 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marbelli have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Churriana Vega have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2026 | Granada II(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Nov 8, 2026 | Málaga II(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Cantoria(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Atlético Porcuna(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | UD San Pedro(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2026 | Motril(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Nov 8, 2026 | Atletico de Marbella(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Almería II(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Granada II(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Málaga II(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Marbelli wins, 0 draws, 2 Churriana Vega wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Marbelli 1-2 Churriana Vega | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Churriana Vega 1-0 Marbelli | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Marbelli vs Churriana Vega on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Marbelli score 0.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Churriana Vega score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 30% probability of over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marbelli | 0.9 | 0.8 | 5 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
| Churriana Vega | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marbelli sit 10th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (15 points from 11 matches) and Churriana Vega sit 9th (15 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Churriana Vega | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 11 | 15 |
| 10 | Marbelli | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 15 |
A question about Marbelli vs Churriana Vega?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marbelli vs Churriana Vega?
- The Footlab AI model makes Marbelli the favourite at 45%, against 32% for a draw and 23% for Churriana Vega.
- Where and when is Marbelli vs Churriana Vega played?
- Marbelli vs Churriana Vega is played on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 30% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.