Arenas Armilla vs Churriana Vega: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 14Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Municipal, Armilla
The Footlab model makes Arenas Armilla the favourite at 54%, against 28% for a draw and 18% for Churriana Vega. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arenas Armilla vs Churriana Vega?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Arenas Armilla (1,787) and Churriana Vega (1,744).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arenas Armilla have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Churriana Vega have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(away) | 2-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Motril(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 31, 2026 | Motril(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 24, 2026 | Torre del Mar(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Motril(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 17, 2026 | Motril(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 10, 2026 | El Palo(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | UD San Pedro(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Alhaurino(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Arenas Armilla win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Churriana Vega win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Arenas Armilla 3-0 Churriana Vega | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Churriana Vega 1-0 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Arenas Armilla vs Churriana Vega on Feb 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arenas Armilla score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Churriana Vega score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arenas Armilla | 1.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Churriana Vega | 0.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arenas Armilla sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (54 points from 34 matches) and Churriana Vega sit 5th (52 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Arenas Armilla | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 29 | 54 |
| 5 | Churriana Vega | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 32 | 40 | 52 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arenas Armilla vs Churriana Vega?
- The Footlab model makes Arenas Armilla the favourite at 54%, against 28% for a draw and 18% for Churriana Vega.
- Where and when is Arenas Armilla vs Churriana Vega played?
- Arenas Armilla vs Churriana Vega is played on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.